Monday 18 June 2012

Enjoy it while it lasts: Dramatic group stages' days are numbered.


Last night Cristiano Ronaldo took centre stage as Portugal swept aside a disappointing Dutch outfit to secure their place in the quarter-finals of Euro 2012 in what was a fantastic spectacle, typical of the tournament so far. In Group B, any of the four teams could still have qualified or been eliminated with just one game to play. At multiple stages it looked like three teams could have finished level on points, with a vicious circle of head-to-head results meaning it would have come down to goal difference or goals scored, both of which were extremely tight. As it happened Germany and Portugal , on nine and six points respectively, finished well clear of Denmark who had three points and the pointless Holland. This followed on from a fascinating night in Group A where Russia and Poland, both of whom had looked likely to qualify with the former heavily tipped as outsiders to win the tournament, were both eliminated by the Czech Republic and Greece, who had both looked poor in their opening two games.

This incredible drama looks set to continue into the next two match days with Spain, Croatia and Italy battling out for two places in Group C and England, France and Ukraine doing likewise in Group D. The drama for the tournament is pretty much as perfect a format for a European Championship as you could possibly want, with the quarter-finals looming in the near future. So what a terrible, terrible shame it is that UEFA’s executive committee has allowed the tournament to expand to 24 teams for Euro 2016. The addition of eight teams means there will now be six groups of four teams, as opposed to four. UEFA had two likely options for the format from this point and, though the decision will not be confirmed until later this year, it looks likely that they will be introducing an extra knockout round of 16, meaning the four best third-placed teams will escape the group along with the top two. The propensity for this formula to kill drama is extreme to say the least. Based on last night’s group, Denmark may still have qualified despite losing their second and third games. There would even be scenarios where teams could qualify with a solitary point. The other option would be going straight to the quarter-finals with the six winners and only two runners-up qualifying from the group but this is unlikely as UEFA appear keen to introduce an additional round.

The last sixteen format, with the four best third-placed teams qualifying was used in the World Cup between 1986 and 1994, before the worldwide tournament was expanded to 32 teams. Back then, the likes of Bulgaria and Uruguay progressed from groups despite drawing two and losing one of their three group games, removing much of the early tournament drama. Furthermore, the increase to 24 will mean almost half of the 53 UEFA nations will participate in the tournament, not only weakening the quality of the teams in the finals, but making qualification much simpler for the higher ranked nations. Scenarios such as England’s failure to qualify for Euro 2008 will be nigh on impossible. Presumably the top two teams from each qualifying group would qualify, with third placed teams entering play-offs. If this format had been around for the current tournament, the likes of Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia would have been making appearances and even Armenia, Israel and Scotland could have been in with a chance through the play-offs. Spain would have essentially qualified after only five matches played. This lack of competitiveness could hinder nations by the time big tournaments came around.

Having said this, it isn’t all doom and gloom. An expanded tournament could allow for more interest across the continent and the extra round and groups would mean 51 games instead of 31, meaning the Euros would provide a lot more football for goal-hungry fans in the summer period. Participation in finals tournaments for mid-ranking nations like Estonia and Armenia would help improve the standards of football and facilities in those nations and provide additional revenue. However, the drama of qualification (remember England still needed at least a draw in their final qualifier with Montenegro) and the group stages, such as this year’s group of death would almost certainly never be repeated. All the true excitement will likely wait until the knockout rounds of the tournament when the wheat would finally be separated from the chaff. So make sure to savour Euro 2012. You will probably never see a major tournament of its high quality again.

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